Weather Predictions & Folklore: The History of Ordinary Things
Almanacs are known for predicting astronomical events, supplying historic climate information, forecasting weather patterns and recommending when farmers and gardeners should plant. Almanacs supply information from historical events and present conditions as well as stories, fun facts and folklore.
The origins of the almanac are traced to ancient Babylonian astronomy which predicted lunar and planetary phenomena. The Medieval almanacs had general horoscopes as well as information on nature. By the late 16th century, multiple yearly almanacs were published in England. By the 17th century, English almanacs were bestsellers, second only to the Bible, with 400,000 being produced annually.
The first American almanac was William Pierce’s 1639 An Almanac Calculated for New England. In 1792, Robert B. Thomas published the first issue of The Old Farmer’s Almanac (George Washington was president). Although other almanacs were available, Thomas’s almanac became an immediate success. By the second year, circulation grew from 3,000 to 9,000. The almanac costs six pence, or about 9 cents. Based on a Galilian theory from the early 1600s, Thomas devised a secret weather forecasting formula which was surprisingly correct. By 1846, The Old Farmer’s Almanac was America’s leading periodical. The four-seasons drawing on the cover, by artist Henry Nichols, was added in 1851 and has been in use ever since.
In 1861, the almanac’s emphasis shifted to farming and in two years increased circulation to 225,000. In 1900-1920’s the book’s content shifted again to appeal to a more general audience. It replaced the scientific agriculture articles with general features on nature and modern life. The stories captured the mood, spirit, habits, trends, and interests of the times.
Now celebrating the 233rd edition, The Old Farmer’s Almanac has never missed a single year of publication. It has been the longest running, bestselling annual guide to daily living. Thomas’ mission was to produce a book that was “useful, with a pleasant degree of humor”. It continues to meet this mission reaching 84 million, or 1 in 6, American adults annually.
As of 2022, The Old Farmer’s Almanac says it uses the original secret formula to predict the weather with around 80 percent accuracy. This is disputed by a (single) University of Illinois study who reported the Almanac was only about 52 percent accurate—which is essentially random chance. But do we really care? (2025 is about 52% accurate.)
The primary American competitor, the Farmers’ Almanac, was introduced in 1818. It also offers readers long-range weather predictions, humor, fun facts, and valuable advice on gardening, cooking, fishing, conservation, and more. In 1933, the new editor, Ray Geiger, promoted the Farmers’ Almanac on radio and TV. Art Linkletter called Ray Geiger “the most interviewed man in America.” Circulation increased from 85,000 to over six million.
Did you know that September’s full moon, known as the Harvest Moon, will be on the 7th? Or that Alaska’s winter will likely have below-average temperatures this year? excerpted from The Old Farmer’s Almanac, 2025.
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