SECULAR TURKEY CONTINUING TO CHANGE

A couple of years ago I wrote that secularism in Turkey had basically come to an end because the ruling Islamic-leaning AK party had successfully done what was hitherto unthinkable. They had placed their own man, Tayyip Erdogan, in the office of Prime Minister who had then appointed his choice of Abdullah Gul to the office of President. As president, Gul was entitled to move into the President’s mansion, a place with powerful symbolic meaning to the followers of Ataturk, the secular founder of modern Turkey. To make matters worse for the secularists, Gul naturally brought along his wife into the mansion, complete with her prominent Islamic head covering, the ultimate symbol of defiance against the vision that Ataturk had for a new Turkey, one released from the old habits and traditions of Islam which he believed would hold the country back in terms of education, technology, and civilization.

This month the AK party is poised to take another major step forward in consolidating its power in Turkey, further marginalizing the dwindling numbers of the secular faithful. In municipal and regional elections being held across the country, the AK party is hoping to gain a majority of the governor and mayor offices, as well as a host of smaller positions of power. The secular party, the CHP, or Republican People’s Party, has already shown it’s much decreased influence as the election campaign enters the final stage just days before the people cast their votes. In Istanbul, brightly colored flags from dozens of political parties hang like thick curtains over throngs of Turks walking the city streets. Most of these flags proudly display the white and yellow colors of the AK Party. A fair number of flags advertise other smaller parties that represent special interests. The secular CHP has a presence as well, with red and white flags scattered here and there around the city. But a simple glance around reveals that the formerly dominant CHP has weakened considerably in the shadow of the still ascending AK party.

What does the decline of the CHP and ascent of the AK party mean for the future of Turkey? This is a very difficult question to answer, one which Turkish political analysts struggle to understand. During the major stress over the question of having an AK party member serve as president of Turkey, millions of secular Turks, mostly women, took to the streets of Istanbul, Izmir, and Ankara warning the AK party not to overreach in trying to impose Islamic traditions on the general populace of Turkey. Roughly forty percent of Turkish women do not cover their heads in public and consider any attempt to make them do so as next to totalitarianism. They also deeply fear that once the law is changed allowing covered Muslims to attend college and work in government positions, social pressure will do what the law doesn’t have to: take away their freedom. Though this fear may be exaggerated in the minds of the more secularized women (including the Alevi religious minority) there is no question that the social dynamics combined with key changes in government policy could unleash forces that slowly but surely remake Turkey into a more overtly Islamic nation in the next ten years.

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The current AK party doesn’t only want to recast the internal image of Turkey. Recent signals from Turkey, such as the Prime Minister’s public denunciation of Israel’s Shimon Perez and the upcoming plans for Turkey to mediate talks between the US and Iran, show that they want to revive the ever simmering Turkish hopes for regaining the Ottoman Empire’s former glory. The AK party has shrewdly used Turkey’s attempt to join the EU to institute reforms allowing the proliferation Islamic religious groups (tarikats), some of which have a history predating the modern republic. Many of these were banned under the secularists; they have enjoyed resurgence and widening of influence in the 21st century, so that their members can unashamedly say that Turkey will again rise as the leader of the Islamic world.

In her recent visit to Turkey, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton sought to repair ties between Turkey and the US, after several years of a declining relationship. Turks still view the Clintons very favorable ever since Bill and Hillary visited their country in 1999 shortly after the devastating earthquakes claiming tens of thousands. However Bush’s policy and personality pushed Turkish disapproval of America to the highest in the world, with ninety percent of Turks reporting a negative attitude toward the US. AK party leadership feels that it can work with the Obama administration because of his Islamic family background, his friendly gestures toward the Palestinians, and his reluctance to threaten military action in the Middle East. The store of good will toward Hillary also helps immensely for both parties to try to leverage the situation for their own goals.

If the March municipal elections go as predicted, the AK party will come out stronger than ever. Turkey has suffered under the global economic crisis with unemployment rising to between fifteen and twenty percent. After the AK party’s victory party is over, they face a daunting task of governing in the midst of such vast challenges. In this way the situation in the Turkish election mirrors the recent US presidential election. With such high stakes in the balance, if the AK party governs well, they will secure their place in Turkey for many years to come.